War or Peace?: The United States and China 2026-2049
Tim Hames

• The relationship between the United States and China in the second quarter of this century (or, put slightly differently, between the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 1776 and the centenary of the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949) will probably be the most important feature of global politics then. What will that relationship be like? What could it be like if thought through properly?

• War or Peace? The United States and China, 2026-2049 offers a unique answer to this fundamental question. And it is an answer, not “on the one hand or on the other”.

• It does so through a series of chapters that set out the history of the relationship with a special emphasis on American perceptions of China over that period, a chapter that identifies the key influences on American intellectual and political thought on China, and a comparison of the “Xi Effect” on Chinese politics and “Trump Effect” in the US. Despite vastly different personalities there are surprising similarities between them.

• It sets out why American thinking about China has become much more pessimistic in the past decade or so to the extent that many believe the two are “Destined for War”.

• It then dissects five areas of critical importance that need to be understood about the United States and China from 2026 to 2049 namely demography, the very different character of the economies, foreign policy and national security, the long-term impact of Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative and competition in new technological spheres.

• It examines likely developments in China and the United States between 2026 and 2049 through the metrics of political structure, party systems, principal societal challenges, the nature of the two economies and the net overall effect on the risk of armed conflict.

• It sets out a ten-point plan for how the relationship can be improved from 2026 to 2049.

• It unambiguously rejects the “Destined for War” argument in favour of a far better route.

War or Peace? The United States and China, 2026-2049 offers a manifesto for moderation.

It should have an audience among all who are interested in and affected by this vital issue.

It has an ambition of encouraging Americans to think again about how they evaluate China.